The DeFi Report

Bitcoin is pushing back toward $80K, but the underlying data still looks like a classic bear market setup. Mike and Ryan break down why “hot money” from the 2025 top hasn’t fully rotated yet, how past cycles suggest more downside or time is needed, and why dip buyers may be stepping in too early. They also explain what real bottom formation looks like onchain and why this rally could be more about positioning than a true shift in trend. 
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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
1:44 Mike's Evolving Thinking on Altcoins
5:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Cost Basis Data
8:11 Understanding Bitcoin's Cohorts
10:08 Exploring New & Old Money Patterns
14:20 Comparing Cohorts Across Cycles
18:09 Key Takeaways from the Cohort Analysis
26:33 Portfolio Moves & Strategy Discussion
32:07 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is up 19% from the February lows, but Mike argues this still looks more like a bear market bounce than a true bottom. He and Ryan break down why weak ETF flows, soft onchain activity, fading risk appetite, and rolling liquidity still do not look like the kind of setup that usually marks a durable low. They also map out the key BTC levels that would force a change in view, and what real capitulation tends to look like when the cycle finally turns.
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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne  

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:50 Polling Investor Sentiment
4:22 The Four-Year Cycle Explained
13:02 Market Dynamics and Investor Psychology
17:17 Examining Current Liquidity Conditions
27:31 Fiscal Policy and Its Impact
29:07 On-Chain Analysis of Bitcoin
39:10 Understanding Market Trends and Patterns
44:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Markets ripped on the Iran ceasefire headlines, but Mike says the bigger bearish process may still be unfolding.
Mike and David break down why Bitcoin, oil, global liquidity, and the S&P’s 200-day moving average are all flashing mixed signals, and why the real bottom may still require more pain, patience, and weak-hand capitulation.
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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne  
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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
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https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
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TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
2:56 Market Reactions to Ceasefire
6:28 Analyzing the Bull & Bear Cases
11:02 The Pessimist's Perspective
15:34 Iran's Strategic Position
22:37 Understanding the Liquidity Cycle
26:58 The Long-Term View on Bitcoin
31:34 Short-Term Market Signals
36:08 Closing & Disclaimers
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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

Bitcoin is down 47% from the highs, but Mike says the real “fat pitch” still hasn’t arrived.

Mike and Ryan break down where BTC could actually bottom using realized price, the 200-week moving average, and deep value onchain signals, plus why oil, Iran, rates, and recession risk still matter more than most crypto investors think.
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📣GALAXYONE | SOLANA STAKING
https://bankless.cc/GalaxyOne  

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
https://thedefireport.io/friends 
https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://thedefireport.io/
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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
2:16 Buffett's Market Perspective
4:45 Galaxy One Staking Launch
6:31 War's Impact on Markets
11:07 Energy Crisis Analysis
14:03 Fed Rate Predictions
18:11 Speculating on Trump's Announcement
24:50 Bitcoin Price Analysis
28:14 Deep Value & Market Strategy
32:53 Altcoins & Crypto Equities
35:04 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.

The Nasdaq just broke its 200-day moving average. In 2022, that was the signal for a 35% collapse. Is history repeating?

Mike and Ryan dive into the "Complacency Trap," why the war in Iran is actually a strategic play for China’s oil, and the onchain data suggesting Bitcoin hasn't hit "Deep Value" yet. They also break down the 2022 analog, the 6.4% mortgage rate reality, and why the "Trump Prize" won't save the markets this time.
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📣GALAXY | INSTITUTIONAL DIGITAL FINANCE
https://bankless.cc/Galaxy 

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🎯THE DEFI REPORT | FOLLOW & SUBSCRIBE
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https://thedefireport.transistor.fm/
https://thedefireport.io/
https://x.com/the_defi_report
https://x.com/JustDeauIt

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TIMESTAMPS

0:00 Intro
1:43 Market Complacency & The War in Iran
7:45 Geopolitical Implications of Oil
10:04 The US-China Connection
13:26 Lessons from 2022
16:44 On-Chain Bitcoin Insights
22:14 Risk Asset Market Psychology
26:33 ETF Inflows and Market Health
28:54 Bitcoin Price Targets
32:44 TDR Portfolio Update
33:56 Patience in Bear Markets
36:28 Closing & Disclaimers

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Not financial or tax advice. For educational purposes only.