What Bitcoin Did

American HODL & Matt Odell join the show for a review of a year that left most Bitcoin narratives exposed. We unpack why expectations ran ahead of reality, why the super cycle never materialised, and how ETFs, treasury companies, and institutional capital quietly changed how this market actually operates. We get into Bitcoin’s underperformance versus gold and equities, the absence of meaningful retail demand, and how leverage distorted outcomes rather than driving real adoption. We discuss what this means long term. From institutional involvement and shifting power structures, to the breakdown of the four year cycle framework. We also get into custody, incentives, freedom, and whether Bitcoin has to pass through the traditional system before it can meaningfully reshape it. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny American HODL: https://primal.net/hodl ODELL: https://primal.net/odell

Joe Carlasare joins the show for a breakdown of why Bitcoin’s sideways year has been so widely misread, and why sentiment today is the worst it's been. We get into why 2025 fell below expectations, why Bitcoin’s lack of volatility pushed capital toward AI stocks and gold, and the fall out from the October 10th liquidation event. We get into why the four year cycle narrative no longer fits a market shaped by ETFs, options, and institutional hedging, why calendar based thinking has become a liability, and why a year of consolidation may be working off excess rather than signalling weakness. Joe explains why a new all time high in 2026 would be one of the most bullish developments in Bitcoin’s history, permanently breaking cycle psychology, and lays out what could shift Bitcoin from hard mode back into a structurally bullish macro asset as liquidity, positioning, and confidence come back. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Joe Carlasare: https://x.com/JoeCarlasare

David Dredge joins the show for a deep dive into why risk is being dangerously misunderstood across global markets, and why Bitcoin’s recent underperformance may actually be a symptom of structural stress, not failure. David explains why volatility itself isn’t the risk, why leverage is the real accelerant, and how TradFi risk models quietly manufacture systemic blow-ups. We unpack how suppressed volatility, ETFs, options markets, and structured products are changing Bitcoin’s market structure, why leverage is creeping in through Wall Street rather than native crypto venues, and how max pain dynamics emerge when under-capitalised risk builds up. David breaks down why the four-year cycle narrative is breaking down, why Bitcoin’s muted year isn’t about demand weakness, and how positioning ultimately drives outcomes. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny David Dredge: https://x.com/ConvexityDredge

Jeff Ross joins the show for a breakdown of why the global financial system is cracking and why Bitcoin’s recent weakness may be the setup. We discuss why governments are trapped into monetising debt, why inflation is no longer a policy choice, and how deflation could ultimately kill fiat currencies altogether. Jeff also explains why the four year Bitcoin cycle is effectively dead, how a multi-year U.S. manufacturing recession has quietly dragged Bitcoin lower, and why liquidity and economic reality matter far more than narratives or price models. We also get into Japan’s bond yield shock and the unwind of the yen carry trade, why rising rates there are sending stress through global markets, and what it signals about the end of the easy-money era. Jeff lays out why the world is slowly moving away from the U.S. dollar as the global reserve asset, why gold is already repricing, and why Bitcoin’s real breakout may come later, driven by structural pressure. We explore the 2026 inflection point, government-picked winners like AI and manufacturing and the risk of global deflation. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny

Sam Callahan is the Director of Strategy & Research at OranjeBTC. In this episode we discuss why Bitcoin’s fundamentals have never been stronger, why Bitcoin periodically decouples from global liquidity, how internal market dynamics can override macro conditions, and why today’s divergence between improving fundamentals and weak price action may actually be one of the most misunderstood moments in this cycle and why the four-year cycle framework is increasingly unreliable. We also get into the deeper structural risks facing the global financial system, from fiscal dominance and runaway deficits to the looming insolvency of Social Security and Medicare. Sam walks through why entitlement spending, demographics, and interest expense create a problem that can’t be solved politically, only postponed monetarily. THANKS TO OUR SPONSORS: IREN ANCHORWATCH BLOCKWARE LEDN BITKEY SWAN FOLLOW: Danny Knowles: https://x.com/\_DannyKnowles or https://primal.net/danny Sam Callahan: https://x.com/samcallah