Geopolitical Cousins

Trump and Xi shook hands in Beijing, and yes, the soccer mom in all of us should appreciate that two nuclear superpowers are behaving like adults. But let's not kid ourselves :) soybeans and Boeing orders don't a détente make. JShap thinks Trump can't carry the baton; Marko says he's the only one who can land the plane he launched. Meanwhile, the CIA's running around Mexico, Cuba's running out of diesel, and AOC is sharpening her ideological fangs.
After Dark, as advertised.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Show rundown and updates
(00:45) - After Dark banter
(01:47) - Trump meets Xi
(02:47) - Why the summit matters
(05:42) - Messaging and skepticism
(08:04) - Military intelligence complex
(09:46) - Tech split and hardware lobby
(14:05) - Globalization lessons and leverage
(20:29) - COVID and Nixon to China
(25:00) - Who carries the baton
(34:46) - China economics and engineering state
(37:54) - Consumers inflation and pain tolerance
(46:12) - Pentagon report dime framework
(46:57) - DIME Framework Roast
(47:53) - China and Hormuz Deal
(52:11) - Chinese Shipping Boom
(53:02) - Gulf Commodities Pivot
(55:11) - US China Mixed Signals
(59:12) - Mexico Relationship Flashpoints
(01:01:23) - Cuba Protests and Indictments
(01:03:27) - Do Mexicans Want Help
(01:06:02) - CIA vs Delta Force Debate
(01:12:47) - AOC Billionaire Clip
(01:19:21) - Populism and Corruption
(01:26:56) - California Race Wrap Up
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Referenced in the Show:

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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The lads turn an unscripted session into a sharp diagnosis of the US-China relationship amid the Strait of Hormuz crisis. They debate whether China is strategically patient or simply indifferent - and what its silence means for the Global South. The Xi-Trump summit looms as both the dealmaker's prize and the ultimate test of a G2 world.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introooo
(01:20) - China Defies Iran Sanctions
(03:33) - Oil Markets and Sanctions Backfire
(07:52) - Summit Hype and Trade Deal Goals
(10:05) - G2 vs Multipolar Debate
(12:17) - Should China Pressure Iran
(15:57) - Global South Stakes and Bagels
(18:34) - China Strategic Patience Rebuttal
(32:03) - What China Offers the World
(34:40) - Yuan Push and Middle Kingdom
(36:54 China Whiffing the Moment
(38:50) - China Constraints First
(39:34) - Disciplining Iran Debate
(41:29) - Multipolarity Versus Bipolar
(43:08) - Iran Strikes UAE Update
(45:33) - Ceasefire And Escalation
(49:12) - Oil Inventories Supply Hole
(51:15) - Markets Ignore War Risk
(53:15) - AI Capex Takes Over
(56:09) - Energy Inequality And Supply Chains
(58:37) - Trump Priorities And Timeline
(01:02:08) - Rebuilding After US Backstop
(01:05:42) - Pandemic Shifted China Views
(01:09:47) - Propaganda And Cultural Hegemony
(01:14:55) - NBA Riffs And Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Recorded late at night from New Orleans and Montreal, Jacob and Marko dig into the Iran-Hormuz standoff as oil prices climb and the ceasefire holds... for now. They debate who bears the blame, whether China's patience has limits, and what a US-China deal might mean for the strait. Plus: Canada's sovereign wealth fund and the Cousins Trade Value Index preview.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - After Dark
(00:44) - Jazz Hour Banter
(03:01) - From Sports to Iran
(03:36) - Oil Shock Signals
(05:46) - Ceasefire and Storage
(10:06) - Demand Destruction Debate
(13:48) - Trump Narrative and Blame
(18:04) - Cold War Framing
(19:27) - China Pressure and Pakistan
(33:11) - UAE Leaves OPEC
(36:30) - Cartels and Oil Math
(40:00) - Saudi Price Warfare
(41:06) - OPEC Share Debate
(41:53) - UAE Saudi Rift Risks
(42:49) - Why OPEC Can Undercut
(46:12) - Putin Polls Warning
(48:56) - Russia Pivot Playbook
(55:06) - KD Leadership Analogy
(01:01:06) - Panama Canal Signaling
(01:07:12) - Canada Wealth Fund Plan
(01:15:00) - Wrap Up and Playoffs
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Oil analyst Rory Johnston joins Jacob and Marko to break down why energy experts are alarmed by the Strait of Hormuz closure while markets remain at an all time high. Like wtf. Rory explains the 13 million barrel-per-day supply hole, the math on strategic reserves, and what timeline triggers a real price spike. The hosts probe whether Trump's leverage is shrinking faster than Iran's.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Welcome
(00:35) - Meet Rory Johnston
(01:30) - Canada and 51st State Banter
(04:12) - The Light on Fire Game
(07:52) - Where to Follow Rory
(09:09) - Why Hormuz Matters
(10:31) - Reroutes and Pipeline Capacity
(13:26) - Stocks SPR and Market Calm
(19:18) - When Do Shortages Hit
(27:59) - Red Sea and Houthi Risks
(31:34) - Iran Leverage and Taco Paradox
(35:25) - Hot Takes Round One America
(40:49) - China Buyer Strike Debate
(45:35) - Can We Just Build Pipelines
(47:05) - Time Horizon Leverage
(49:04) - Workarounds And Pipelines
(50:53) - Regime Change Off Table
(52:50) - Cash In Before Escalation
(59:46) - Work From Home Oil Demand
(01:02:46) - Russia And Cascade Risks
(01:09:24) - Price Scenarios Brent
(01:13:37) - Market Math Vs Jawboning
(01:22:48) - Mutual Assured Energy
(01:29:11) - Wrap Up And Thanks
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

China isn't losing the energy war with America, it's not even flinching. Jacob and Marko break down why the "choke China's oil" thesis is economically illiterate, why the US and China actually want the same thing (cheap oil), and why Trump is more vulnerable to gasoline prices than Xi ever will be.
Also: Billy Bob Thornton, hairy forearms, and bananas.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Housekeeping
(01:00) - Weekend Sports Banter
(01:53) - Iran Headlines to Real Stakes
(03:31) - China Oil Imports Reality Check
(05:16) - Fungible Oil and Discount Myth
(11:02) - US Economy Needs Low Oil
(18:17) - China Reserves and EV Strategy
(22:46) - SPR Politics and Election Risk
(25:57) - China Energy Stats and Seaborne Risk
(31:26) - Trade Dependence and Supply Chains
(34:06) - Five D Chess and US as Supplier
(40:16) - Industrial Policy and Borg Metaphor
(45:36) - Tariffs Versus Competition
(47:41) - China EVs Copying Tesla
(49:57) - Education And Immigration Edge
(50:48) - Oil Sanctions Are Futile
(52:23) - UAE Dollar Swap Line
(54:52) - Japan China Tensions Rising
(59:31) - DC Trip Policy Chaos
(01:04:51) - Trump Court Politics
(01:09:44) - Military Adults Missing
(01:16:45) - Memes And Trade Value Tease
(01:20:04) - Closing Banter And Wrap
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Referenced in the Show:

--
Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro