Geopolitical Cousins

The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(00:47) - Current Events
(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis
(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict
(38:45) - Germany's Push for a Two-Speed Europe
(49:04) - The Strategic Importance of Spain
(49:42) - Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe
(53:05) - Hungary and Serbia's Political Dynamics
(55:04) - Debunking Demographic Myths
(01:01:14) - The Decline of the United Nations
(01:07:29) - Japan's Political and Economic Future
(01:26:22) - The Role of the Federal Reserve
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview
(01:08) - Current Global Events and Updates
(01:55) - Mark Carney's Geopolitical Moves
(03:09) - Analysis of Carney's Speech at Davos
(03:58) - Comparative Historical Speeches
(04:57) - Canada's Strategic Position and Response
(07:09) - Realpolitik and Global Power Dynamics
(08:56) - Implications for Future Geopolitical Strategies
(16:22) - The Role of Morality in International Relations
(29:10) - Underdogs and National Struggles
(34:23) - Pragmatic Foreign Policy Approaches
(35:23) - The Dangers of Morality in Foreign Policy
(36:17) - Critique of Mark Carney's Speech
(38:45) - Canada's Bold Moves Against Trump
(49:29) - The Iran Situation and Oil Prices
(53:33) - Domestic Issues: Minnesota and ICE
(01:07:14) - Grizzly History and Modern Comparisons
(01:07:50) - Personal Experiences and Political Commentary
(01:09:04) - Republican Backlash and Political Dynamics
(01:15:25) - Midwest Musings and Listener Feedback
(01:19:32) - China's Internal Dynamics and Geopolitical Risks
(01:26:05) - Taiwan Tensions and Future Predictions
(01:33:34) - Closing Thoughts and Future Plans
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin:

A chill manifesto against lazy thinking. A low-key diatribe about our preconceptions. Marko and Jacob take a second, amidst all the chaos of January 2026, to tear into the core failure of most geopolitical analysis - Bias. Real analysis means stripping away emotion, nationalism, and ego, then stress-testing your views until they break. From Trump and Canada to Russia, markets, and personal discipline, the point is simple: if you can’t argue the other side convincingly, you’re not an analyst—you’re a fan. --
Timestamps:
(00:00) - Today's word is....
(00:39) - Listener Feedback and Basketball Metaphors
(03:18) - Trump's Tariff Threats and Greenland
(05:25) - Canada's Strategic Partnership with China
(19:08) - Geopolitical Analysis and Bias
(43:26) - Dealing with Hate Mail and Identity
(43:55) - The Problem with Being Right
(44:09) - Kobe Bryant's Shot Chart and Analysis Integrity
(44:57) - Buddhism and Nihilism in Analysis
(45:37) - Finance and Objectivity
(47:29) - Bias in Finance and Politics
(52:12) - Physical Fitness and Analysis
(01:01:03) - Frameworks and Methodologies
(01:12:15) - Humor and Passion in Analysis
(01:15:02) - Final Thoughts on Being an Analyst
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia.
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Timestamps:
(00:49) - Introducing Kamran and the Iranian Context
(01:43) - Iran's Political Landscape and Regime Stability
(05:03) - Historical Context and Regime Evolution
(09:06) - Internal Dynamics and Military Influence
(12:36) - Potential for Change and Succession
(16:40) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook
(24:52) - Economic Interests and Sanctions
(33:58) - Regional Influence and Strategic Interests
(45:10) - US Geostrategy and Burden Sharing
(46:08) - National Security Strategy and Spheres of Influence
(46:56) - Iran's Regional Influence and Internal Dynamics
(49:11) - Potential Civil War in Iran
(56:21) - Historical Context and Ethnic Composition of Iran
(01:02:19) - Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Situation
(01:11:39) - Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence
(01:24:33) - Final Thoughts and Broader Geopolitical Issues
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:

Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "analytical trap" is to dismiss the protests as just another 2009. But with oil sub-$50, no off-ramps, and a regime showing actual cracks, the question isn’t if things change - it’s whether the IRGC is ready to trade an 87-year-old Supreme Leader for a seat at the table.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:57) - Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests
(02:49) - US-Iran Relations and Potential Outcomes
(11:57) - Historical Analogies and Regime Change
(17:21) - Greenland's Strategic Importance
(24:37) - US-Denmark Relations and Sovereignty Issues
(34:49) - Denmark's Historical Significance and WWII Heroics
(35:36) - The Stupidity of Invading Greenland
(35:54) - Republican Senators' Opposition
(37:44) - Senator Kennedy's Southern Charm
(40:34) - Trump's 19th Century Worldview
(41:31) - The Importance of NATO and Denmark's Role
(41:58) - Greenland's Resources and American Interests
(42:37) - Europe's Response to Trump's Greenland Obsession
(49:37) - Geopolitical Realities and American Ignorance
(01:01:34) - The Complexity of Geopolitical Analysis
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Referenced in the Show:
Greenland Breakdown - https://jashap.substack.com/p/greenland
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: