Geopolitical Cousins

Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia.
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Timestamps:
(00:49) - Introducing Kamran and the Iranian Context
(01:43) - Iran's Political Landscape and Regime Stability
(05:03) - Historical Context and Regime Evolution
(09:06) - Internal Dynamics and Military Influence
(12:36) - Potential for Change and Succession
(16:40) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook
(24:52) - Economic Interests and Sanctions
(33:58) - Regional Influence and Strategic Interests
(45:10) - US Geostrategy and Burden Sharing
(46:08) - National Security Strategy and Spheres of Influence
(46:56) - Iran's Regional Influence and Internal Dynamics
(49:11) - Potential Civil War in Iran
(56:21) - Historical Context and Ethnic Composition of Iran
(01:02:19) - Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Situation
(01:11:39) - Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence
(01:24:33) - Final Thoughts and Broader Geopolitical Issues
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
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Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
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Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:

Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil.
Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "analytical trap" is to dismiss the protests as just another 2009. But with oil sub-$50, no off-ramps, and a regime showing actual cracks, the question isn’t if things change - it’s whether the IRGC is ready to trade an 87-year-old Supreme Leader for a seat at the table.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Intro
(00:57) - Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests
(02:49) - US-Iran Relations and Potential Outcomes
(11:57) - Historical Analogies and Regime Change
(17:21) - Greenland's Strategic Importance
(24:37) - US-Denmark Relations and Sovereignty Issues
(34:49) - Denmark's Historical Significance and WWII Heroics
(35:36) - The Stupidity of Invading Greenland
(35:54) - Republican Senators' Opposition
(37:44) - Senator Kennedy's Southern Charm
(40:34) - Trump's 19th Century Worldview
(41:31) - The Importance of NATO and Denmark's Role
(41:58) - Greenland's Resources and American Interests
(42:37) - Europe's Response to Trump's Greenland Obsession
(49:37) - Geopolitical Realities and American Ignorance
(01:01:34) - The Complexity of Geopolitical Analysis
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Referenced in the Show:
Greenland Breakdown - https://jashap.substack.com/p/greenland
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin:

The Cousins™ dismantle the lazy myths swirling around Venezuela, U.S. power, and the idea that every successful strike is a reusable template. This is about oil, incentives, and why markets consistently misunderstand force until it’s already been applied. Most importantly, this episode is a warning against one of the most dangerous impulses in geopolitics: assuming yesterday’s clean win guarantees tomorrow’s easy one. When credibility is tested and restraint looks optional, the real risk isn’t chaos - it’s overconfidence.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(04:55) - Discussion on Venezuela and US Foreign Policy
(06:20) - Saudi Arabia's Economic Strategy and Oil Market Dynamics
(15:11) - Potential Geopolitical Moves: Iran, Cuba, and Greenland
(33:10) - Trump's Trolling Tactics
(33:26) - Venezuela's Impact on Trump's Strategy
(34:18) - Trump's Liberal Tendencies
(35:07) - Greenland and NATO Implications
(36:03) - Legal Constraints and Political Realities
(38:00) - Republican Party Dynamics
(39:09) - Geopolitical Myths and Realities
(50:27) - US Intervention History
(01:00:50) - Rare Earths and Global Strategy
(01:02:12) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts
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Referenced in the Show:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Welcome to another normal week in geopolitics - on your left, you'll see the Trump administration (allegedly) flying into Caracas at 1am and walking Nicolás Maduro out the door. No moral sermons, no democracy talk, just raw power politics, naked and unapologetic. Jacob and Marko unpack what this moment says about American empire, hypocrisy fatigue, regime change fantasies, and why history, from Panama to Iran, keeps repeating itself.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Podcast Announcement
(00:31) - US Attack on Venezuela: Initial Reactions
(02:11) - Historical Context of US Foreign Policy
(03:12) - Trump's Hypocrisy and US Foreign Policy Consistency
(03:49) - Marko's Perspective on the US Operation in Venezuela
(05:37) - Conspiracy Theories and Military Operations
(07:42 Implications of the US Operation in Venezuela
(11:56) - Potential Regime Change in Venezuela
(16:54) - Cuba as the Next Geopolitical Target
(27:42) - Latin America's Political Landscape and US Influence
(41:03) - Global Power Shifts and Resource Relevance
(41:45) - China's Influence in South America
(43:41) - Challenges of Economic Development in Latin America
(46:20) - Geopolitical Tensions and Regime Changes
(48:49) - The Chuck Norris Premium and Oil Prices
(01:04:28) - Middle Eastern Conflicts and Rivalries
(01:14:27) - Geopolitical Movies and Historical Events
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA:

Geopolitics isn’t just policy memos and grim men in bad suits... it’s explosions, bad decisions, and unintended consequences (preferably set to a great score). The movies that we obsess over aren’t accidental; they’re training wheels for understanding power.
War films that explain absolutely nothing.
Spy thrillers where everyone is in the wrong.
Resource dramas where greed wins (reality?).
Collapse stories where systems rot from the inside.
Cinema is where geopolitics drops the pretense and tells the truth: states are insecure, leaders are flawed, and incentives matter more than intentions. Consider this a syllabus disguised as a watchlist - where empires rise, fall, and usually trip over their own feet along the way.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) - Introduction
(00:54) - Categories of Geopolitical Movies
(04:44) - First Pick
(09:15) - Second Pick
(14:26) - Third Pick
(18:59) - Fourth Pick
(22:27) - Fifth Pick
(25:10) - Sixth Pick
(30:43) - Seventh Pick
(32:14) - Eighth Pick
(34:50) - Ninth Pick
(36:00) - Listen to find out :)
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Referenced in the Show:
Jacob's List:
Marko's List:
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Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com
--
Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.
Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com
Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416
Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap
Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe
--
Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.
Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic
Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/
Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic
Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro