Frontline: The War in Ukraine and Global Security

“For four years, the Russian people were insulated from this war, but over the past six months, the war has been brought home to them.”

Ukraine is putting “the feet of the Russian people… to the fire” through its campaign against Russian oil refineries and Wildberries logistics centres, says Cormac Smith, a former British diplomat and adviser to Ukraine’s foreign minister.
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“It’s quite imaginative, the things they’ve [Ukraine] managed to carry out.”

Russia’s failure to learn and adapt its special operations tactics has put Putin on the back foot, says academic and global security expert Dr Aaron Edwards.
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“That would’ve really hit public opinion. It’s like saying you can’t get anything from Amazon.”

Putin is under pressure as Ukraine’s largest attack on Moscow, combined with hints of full mobilisation, leads to dwindling public support, says Robert Fox, defence editor at the Evening Standard and writer for the i paper.
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“The only way to keep this system afloat is to construct it in a manual way and replace the old guys with the new generation.”

Putin must replace his management system to survive, as his inner circle is now “of his age or older”, says political scientist and analyst Nikolai Petrov.
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“Drafting troops from St Petersburg and Moscow would be a massive gamble.”

The strikes on St Petersburg and Moscow are making Putin’s grip on power “more tenuous”, as the cities are home to the Russian leader’s largest support base: the oligarchs, says Cormac Smith, a former British diplomat to Ukraine.
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