Flirting with Models

• Antti Ilmanen - Understanding Return Expectations (S7E21)

  In this episode, I speak with Antti Ilmanen, Principal and Global Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group at AQR Capital Management.Antti has long been one of the most thoughtful voices in the world of expected returns, having written not one, but two landmark books on the subject. But in his latest paper series, he returns to the topic with fresh urgency—probing the difference between objective and subjective expectations, and asking why even rational models can go so wrong in real time.We explore everything from CAPE ratios and market timing accusations, to why equity investors tend to extrapolate while bond investors expect mean reversion. We dig into how behavioral biases, valuation anchors, and structural shifts collide when forming capital market assumptions—and how Antti and the AQR team try to navigate that mess themselves.If you’re in the business of long-term forecasting or just curious why markets often act like they’ve never read the textbooks, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.Please enjoy my conversation with Antti Ilmanen.

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• Chris Carrano – Designing Practical Factor Models (S7E20)

  In this episode, I speak with Chris Carrano, Vice President of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma.Chris has had a rare vantage point in the world of factors — spanning smart beta, long/short hedge funds, and risk modeling — and that experience has shaped a thoughtful view of what factors really are and how they can be practically used.We dive into the philosophy and design behind Venn: why it uses just 18 orthogonalized factors, how it blends Lasso and OLS to reduce overfitting, and why it prioritizes interpretability over complexity.We also tackle messy real-world challenges: how to analyze private markets with sparse data, how to trust synthetic return streams, and where to draw the line when using monthly snapshots that embed structural portfolio shifts.Finally, we explore what it means to make factor results actionable—whether through stress testing, residual interpretation, or portfolio diagnostics.Please enjoy my conversation with Chris Carrano.

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• Jeff Rosenberg – The Past, Present, and Future of Systematic Fixed Income (S7E19)

  In this episode I speak with Jeffrey Rosenberg, Managing Director at BlackRock where he leads active and factor investments for mutual funds, ETFs, and institutional portfolios for the Systematic Fixed Income team.In the first half of the conversation we discuss the history of quant fixed income. Specifically, its evolution within the halls of sell-side institutions and how solutions were shaped by demand for underwriting, securitization, and derivatives.We then make the leap to the buyside, where Jeff outlines the topology of systematic fixed income solutions at BlackRock. We quickly dive into the details, discussing topics such as: why factor investing exists predominately in the credit space, why characteristic specificity within the fixed income space is so important, why quant fixed income needs more PMs but fewer researchers than quant equity, how ETFs changed the liquidity landscape, and whether the equity pod-shop model is possible for fixed income. What ultimately becomes clear, through both explanation and example, is that while the terms and ideas of systematic fixed income will be familiar to those in the quant equity space, the Devil lies deeply in the details of implementation.I hope you enjoy my conversation with Jeff Rosenberg.

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• Edward Yu – Bringing OTC On-Chain and the VariationalOMNI Perp Dex (S7E18)

  In this episode I speak with Edward Yu, co-founder of Variational. We begin the conversation with Edward’s background in crypto OTC markets. He explains how the space evolved away from Telegram chats, the complexities of pricing derivative structures on the long-tail of alternative crypto currencies, and the sources of natural flow in the space.This experience led Edward to co-found Variational, which seeks to bring the trillion dollar OTC derivatives market on-chain by disaggregating settlement, margining, and derivative payoff logic into programmable primitives.Built on top of Variational is the OMNI perp dex – or decentralized perpetual futures exchange for the non-crypto-speaking listeners. Unlike other perp dexes that are build around a centralized order book, OMNI effectively acts as a user interface to a OTC RFQ system. On the other side is OLP – the OMNI Liquidity Provider. This structure allows OMNI to provide significant depth of liquidity on a huge breadth of investable assets despite the platform being in closed beta at the time of recording. Given its unique design, we spend a significant amount of time discussing the pros, cons, and risks of this structure.This conversation is, obviously, out of my usual realm. But for those listeners interested in market structure and where the world of finance may be headed, this is one not to miss.Please enjoy my conversation with Edward Yu.

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• Benjamin Hoff – Commodity Futures Surfaces and the Cash-and-Carry Glue (S7E17)

  My guest this episode is Benjamin Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy and Research at Société Générale.Ben started his career in rates before making the jump to commodities, and that lens—shaped by curve arbitrage, convexity, and carry—colors everything he does. In this conversation, we explore how commodities differ fundamentally from other asset classes: the importance of cash-and-carry economics, the sparse information cadence that rewards technical models, and the physical realities that challenge purely quantitative approaches.We also dive into Ben’s more recent work on the geometry of the futures surface, how convexity and skewness may be misunderstood, and why tools like Lévy area might help uncover non-linear structure in the data.Whether you’re deep in the weeds of term structure trading or just curious about how to systematize chaos in barrels and bushels, this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

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