Excess Returns

• Whipsaws, Drawdowns, and Disbelief | Eric Crittenden on the Best Diversifier No One Buys

  In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler and Jason Buck sit down with Eric Crittenden, CIO of Standpoint Funds, for a wide-ranging and candid discussion about trend following, risk transfer markets, and what it takes to build a resilient investment strategy for uncertain futures. Eric shares decades of hard-won insights on investor behavior, portfolio construction, performance pain points, and why blending passive equities with systematic macro might just be the future of asset allocation.🔍 Topics Covered:The uncomfortable realities of trend following performanceWhy many investors misunderstand managed futuresEric’s view on the current drawdown and client behaviorSetting expectations with empirical data and simulationsThe case for blending passive equities with trend followingCapital formation vs. risk transfer markets explainedWhat market participants get wrong about futuresThe surprising resilience of cap-weighted equity indexesThe flaws in relying on bonds as diversifiersHow regime shifts and correlation changes affect trend modelsPhilosophical take on risk, regulation, and structural market design

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• Broken Models. Misleading Yields | Ryan Krueger on Avoiding the Dividend Trap

  Most investors chase yield. But what if the very models they rely on — from dividend screens to the 4% rule — are fundamentally broken?In this episode, we’re joined by Ryan Krueger, co-founder of Freedom Day Solutions and manager of the MBOX ETF, to explore the overlooked truths of dividend investing. Ryan breaks down the importance of dividend growth over yield, why most dividend strategies ignore free cash flow, and how a disciplined sell process separates long-term success from failure. He also explains the concept of “Freedom Day” — a reimagined approach to retirement that’s built on income, not asset totals.Whether you're a dividend investor, financial advisor, or retiree planning for long-term income, this conversation offers a fresh, practical framework you won’t hear elsewhere.We discuss:Why dividend growth beats high yield over timeThe flaws in the 4% withdrawal ruleHow yield-on-cost changes investor behaviorRed flags hidden inside popular dividend ETFsHow “Freedom Day” redefines retirement planningRyan’s quant + discretionary investment processThe underrated power of sell disciplineWhy “never add to losers” might boost your returns📈 Learn more about Ryan’s work: https://freedomdaysolutions.com

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• 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers. First Time in a Decade | Daryl Fairweather on What Comes Next

  In this episode, we’re joined by Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of Hate the Game, to explore the most dramatic shift in the U.S. housing market in over a decade. With sellers now outnumbering buyers by more than 500,000 for the first time since 2013, Daryl breaks down what’s really happening beneath the surface—and why so many homeowners and policymakers are reluctant to face it.We dive into the behavioral and structural forces shaping the market today, from price stickiness and record cancellations to zoning reform and climate-driven migration. Whether you're a homeowner, investor, or policy wonk, this conversation offers a comprehensive look at what’s next for real estate in America.Topics discussed include:The shift to a buyer’s market and why it mattersThe gap between seller expectations and buyer realityRegional pain points: Florida, Texas, and beyondWhy insurance costs and HOAs are distorting marketsBuyer psychology, affordability, and rent vs. own dynamicsTariffs, uncertainty, and interest rate volatilityThe policy fixes Daryl believes we need—fastClimate risk, migration, and Redfin’s flood data experimentWhy your home shouldn't be your investment strategyLessons from game theory and behavioral economicsGuest Links:Daryl Fairweather’s book Hate the Game is available now on Amazon and Audible.Follow Daryl on X, LinkedIn, and Substack @FairweatherPhD

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• Buffett Does It. Most Value Investors Don’t | Robert Hagstrom on the Real Key to Compounding

  Robert Hagstrom returns to discuss the investing principle he believes most value investors still misunderstand—despite decades of evidence from Warren Buffett. In this conversation, we explore why focus investing works, what traditional value investors got wrong about the Magnificent Seven, and how the industry's obsession with low P/E ratios and short-term tracking error leads to missed opportunities. Hagstrom also reflects on lessons from working with Bill Miller and explains why evolving your investment approach is essential for long-term success.In this episode, we discuss:How Hagstrom fell into money management by accidentWhat Buffett’s 1983 letter taught him about investingThe dangers of rigid value investing frameworksWhy most active managers fail over timeThe key to compounding that investors overlookDrawdowns, tracking error, and the psychology of focus investingWhy private equity’s appeal is mostly an illusionWhat Buffett’s surprise CEO handoff really means for Berkshire Hathaway

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• Recession Indicators Are Breaking. Inflation Isn’t | Megan Horneman on What Comes Next

  Megan Horneman: Fragile Optimism, Hidden Inflation Risks, and What Investors Are MissingIn this episode, we’re joined by Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, to discuss her firm’s 2025 outlook and what she sees as the key macro risks and opportunities for investors right now.We explore the themes behind her “Year of Fragile Optimism” thesis, including consumer stress, inflation persistence, the impact of tariffs, debt sustainability, and why many investors are misreading the current market environment.Megan also shares how she’s thinking about portfolio positioning in a world where traditional recession indicators are breaking down and valuations remain elevated.Topics Discussed Include:Why consumer strength may be a mirageThe risk of complacency around inflationTariffs, trade imbalances, and global uncertaintyThe growing consequences of U.S. and global debtWhy small/mid-caps and international stocks may offer better valueFixed income positioning in a “higher for longer” environmentThe case for active management over passive in today’s marketOpportunities and risks in alternatives and private assetsLessons investors can learn from recent volatilityIf you're looking for a thoughtful macro perspective and practical ideas for navigating today's complex market landscape, this conversation is for you.

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