Excess Returns

This episode explores how massive structural shifts—AI, deglobalization, and the rise of passive investing—are reshaping markets and what that means for investors.
Informed Momentum Company CIO Travis Prentice breaks down why 52 week highs don't mean what you think, the extreme dispersion beneath the surface of the market, why traditional definitions of risk may be flawed, and how investors should think about momentum, quality, and diversification in a rapidly changing environment.
Papers and Resources Discussed:
Risks Hiding in Plain Sight
https://www.informedmomentum.com/risks-hiding-in-plain-sight-how-the-dominance-of-passive-investing-is-reshaping-market-risk/
Is Quality Broken?
https://www.informedmomentum.com/is-quality-broken-ai-driven-disruption-is-testing-standard-definitions-of-quality/
Buy High, Sell Higher
https://www.informedmomentum.com/buy-high-sell-higher/
Topics Covered:
The hidden divergence beneath index performance and why the market isn’t as stable as it looks
Why value and momentum are working together—and what that signals about market broadening
How AI and deglobalization are driving a major regime shift in markets
Why momentum investors ignore narratives and focus purely on what’s working
The structural risks created by the rise of passive investing and index concentration
How tracking error replaced real risk—and why that may be dangerous
Why quality stocks (especially software) are under pressure in the AI era
The key insight behind 52-week highs as a powerful momentum signal
Why buying stocks near highs works despite investor intuition
How momentum strategies adapt to changing leadership and market regimes
The importance of combining factors like value, momentum, and quality for long-term success
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro and major market shifts
01:32 Market divergence beneath the surface
03:00 Factor performance and broadening market trends
05:13 Why market concentration hurts factor investing
06:48 AI and deglobalization as structural drivers
08:14 Does this environment change how you invest?
11:02 Has the market sped up? Momentum implications
14:00 Passive investing and hidden structural risks
17:00 Tracking error vs real risk in portfolios
19:00 AI as a potential change agent for markets
21:09 How passive flows impact factor investing
24:00 What defines “quality” in factor investing
27:04 Why software and quality are under pressure
29:13 AI disruption and changing expectations
32:20 How to evaluate factor underperformance
34:35 Comparing today’s market to the 1990s
37:38 Buy high, sell higher: 52-week highs
41:00 52-week highs vs traditional momentum
43:20 Combining signals for better outcomes
46:00 Why 52-week highs improve downside protection
48:17 What momentum is picking up today
50:21 Misconceptions about momentum and growth
52:12 Timing and implementation of momentum
54:18 Momentum reversals and market behavior
57:17 Future research and improving momentum signals

This episode features Chris Bloomstran of Semper Augustus discussing market concentration, AI capital spending, Berkshire Hathaway, and the risks facing today’s equity investors. The conversation explores whether we are at a secular valuation plateau, how AI investment may reshape returns, and why passive investors may face more risk than they realize.
Semper Augustus Investments
https://www.semperaugustus.com
Topics covered:
Why extreme market concentration in the Mag 7 may create long-term risks

The concept of a “secular plateau” vs a market peak

How AI capex could become a classic capital cycle with poor returns

Why hyperscaler spending may not translate into shareholder profits

The hidden risks of leverage both on and off balance sheets

Why buy-and-hold investing is harder than it seems in practice

How valuation discipline drives long-term investment outcomes

Berkshire Hathaway’s cash position and what it signals about opportunity

Why capital allocation matters more than growth narratives

Lessons from past bubbles including railroads, fiber, and the Nifty Fifty

The fragility of life and how it shapes investing priorities

The importance of independent thinking in the age of AI

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
05:12 The “Both Sides Now” framework and AI theme
09:03 Secular peak vs secular plateau in markets
13:08 Leverage risks and balance sheet quality
17:42 Why passive investors are more concentrated than they think
21:12 The limits of long-term compounding and disruption risk
25:06 Why valuation matters more than “forever stocks”
29:10 Portfolio construction and return on capital differences
33:18 AI capex boom and capital cycle parallels
37:05 Why hyperscaler spending may not generate adequate returns
41:12 The math problem behind AI investment returns
45:10 Competition, redundancy, and pricing pressure in AI
49:02 Is AI an existential risk for big tech?
52:06 Berkshire Hathaway’s cash and Apple sales
56:08 Capital allocation lessons from Coca-Cola vs Apple
59:20 What Berkshire’s cash signals about future opportunities
01:02:10 The fragility of life and investing priorities
01:05:28 Final lessons for investors: reading, skepticism, and independent thinking

This episode features David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, breaking down why today’s market may be driven more by valuation excess and investor behavior than fundamentals. He explains why the biggest risks right now are not obvious in headline data, and why the probability distribution for markets may be far more fragile than investors assume.
Rosenberg walks through his framework for thinking in probabilities, how AI-driven productivity is distorting economic signals, why the equity market is now driving the economy, and what a “silent contraction” beneath the surface could mean for growth, inflation, and returns. He also outlines how he is positioning portfolios in response to these risks.
Rosenberg Research
https://www.rosenbergresearch.com
Topics Covered
Why markets may be a “bubble in behavior,” not technology

The equity risk premium at zero and what that implies for future returns

CAPE valuations and why long-term returns could be flat to negative

The shift from economy driving markets to markets driving the economy

The “silent contraction” beneath strong GDP headlines

AI-driven productivity vs weakening labor markets

The K-shaped economy across consumers, jobs, and capital spending

Why the savings rate is the most important overlooked economic variable

Inflation outlook: why this shock may be disinflationary, not persistent

Portfolio construction in a low-return, high-uncertainty environment

Timestamps
00:00 Intro
04:42 Cycle thinking vs “perma bear” label
09:58 Learning probabilistic thinking and Plan B
15:52 The “sixth mega bubble” and investor behavior
20:36 Why valuations imply poor forward returns
25:08 The “silent contraction” beneath headline data
29:14 The savings rate and equity wealth effect
33:12 Fiscal deficits and artificial economic support
38:28 2027 outlook and shifting probabilities
43:02 Why expectations matter more than recession calls
45:40 Inflation shock vs wage-driven inflation
49:22 Productivity boom and disinflation forces
53:10 Why inflation may fall faster than expected
55:04 Portfolio positioning and diversification strategy
01:00:12 Tactical vs thematic investing framework
01:03:10 Final thoughts on risk, probabilities, and markets

Brent Donnelly returns to Excess Returns to break down one of the most confusing market environments in years, where policy shocks, volatility, and positioning matter more than traditional fundamentals. He explains why markets can keep rising despite constant bad news, how traders should think about regime shifts, and what actually drives moves across equities, bonds, FX, and gold today.
Brent also shares practical insights from his trading process, including risk management, journaling, and how to think about positioning and asymmetric opportunities. The conversation spans macro frameworks, behavioral pitfalls, and the evolving nature of market edges, offering a detailed look at how a professional trader navigates uncertainty.
Spectra Markets
https://www.spectramarkets.com
Topics covered:
Why stocks need a steady stream of bad news to go down and what drives rallies

The impact of constant policy shocks on volatility, positioning, and mean reversion

How to distinguish structural trends from short-term trading opportunities

The “wall of worry” and why markets can ignore negative headlines

The importance of Mag 7 earnings and concentration in today’s market

How traders use reassessment triggers like the 200-day moving average

The complexity of central bank reactions to oil shocks and inflation

Why bonds still matter as a recession hedge despite recent correlation breakdowns

How positioning—not fundamentals—drives moves in the U.S. dollar

Gold, silver, and Bitcoin through the lens of flows, retail behavior, and debasement

The role of overconfidence and risk management in trading success

Brent’s journaling process and how writing clarifies thinking

How to identify asymmetric trades using potential headline scenarios

Why edges in markets are temporary and require constant adaptation

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:05 Government policy shocks and market impact
05:10 Volatility, shocks, and trading frameworks
09:05 Why the economy remains resilient despite rate hikes
13:05 Market concentration and the importance of big tech earnings
16:05 The “steady stream of bad news” framework for stocks
18:30 Using the 200-day moving average and pattern recognition
22:10 Central banks, oil shocks, and inflation dynamics
24:35 Stocks vs bonds and the 60/40 portfolio outlook
26:05 Why dollar moves depend on positioning, not narratives
30:55 Gold, silver, and the retail-driven momentum cycle
34:05 The debasement trade and long-term gold thesis
38:10 Rationality vs overconfidence in trading
41:05 Risk management, journaling, and avoiding blowups
46:00 Thinking in probabilities, positioning, and market expectations
50:55 Journaling as a tool for clarity and discipline
55:00 Why traders lose discipline when over-earning
59:10 Brent’s new book and evolving trading frameworks
01:03:30 Where to find Brent and closing thoughts

Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab joins Excess Returns to break down how war, an oil shock, and shifting market dynamics are reshaping the investing landscape. She explains why the surface-level strength in markets is misleading, what’s really happening beneath the index, and how investors should think about inflation, the Fed, AI, and the evolving role of retail traders.
Follow Liz Ann on Twitter
https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders
Liz Ann's Research and Commentaryhttps://www.schwab.com/learn/author/liz-ann-sondersTopics Covered
How war and oil shocks are impacting markets, inflation, and Fed policy

Why the US being a “net energy exporter” doesn’t protect investors

The hidden bear market beneath index-level resilience

Rotation vs. correction and what it means for portfolios

The rise of retail traders and the shift away from “dumb money”

Why better or worse data matters more than good or bad data

The K-shaped economy and its impact on consumption and markets

AI’s three phases and its real impact on jobs and productivity

Why this earnings season may be more important than usual

The shifting role of the Mag 7 and broader market participation

Why the bond market may be the true driver of equities

Risks in credit markets and what investors should watch

Labor market dynamics and challenges for younger workers

How investors and young professionals should think about AI

Timestamps
00:00 Intro and current market environment
04:05 Why the US isn’t immune to oil price shocks
05:35 Lessons from past oil shocks and inflation
07:22 Why markets seem resilient despite macro risks
08:00 The hidden drawdowns beneath the index surface
10:13 Rolling recessions and sector-level weakness
10:37 Are investors conditioned to buy every dip
12:58 What happens when the dip doesn’t get bought
14:36 Valuations, corrections, and market structure
15:12 Sentiment analysis in a new market regime
18:50 Retail investors outperforming institutions
20:08 Better or worse vs good or bad economic data
23:00 How markets anticipate economic turning points
25:22 Understanding the K-shaped economy
28:00 Wealth effects and risks from equity declines
29:09 AI as a transformative force vs macro risks
30:00 The three phases of AI development
33:04 Why this earnings season matters more
34:00 Earnings revisions and sector concentration
36:00 The future of Mag 7 leadership vs the rest of the market
38:00 Contribution vs performance in index returns
40:00 Sector sensitivity to inflation and supply chains
42:00 Fundamentals vs speculation in small caps
44:21 The Fed’s dilemma in an oil shock environment
48:00 Why the bond market is driving equities
50:05 Credit markets and systemic risk signals
53:26 Lessons from past bond market dislocations
54:19 Labor market challenges and younger workers
57:00 Career advice in the age of AI
59:26 How Liz Ann uses AI in her research process
01:01:00 Closing thoughts and where to follow Liz Ann