Excess Returns

• Exceptionalism Is Ending. New Winners Are Rising | Olga Bitel on the $2 Trillion Opportunity

  In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovation, where AI’s productivity dividends could accrue, and why she sees the next decade’s best opportunities outside the United States. Olga also walks through the risks she’s watching, why facts change faster than narratives, and practical ways to connect top-down insights with bottom-up research.Topics coveredThe Perpetual Growth Machine: why needs spark innovation and growth, and how investors can spot it earlyWhy monopolies look great to investors but hurt long-term growth and innovationAI as a general purpose technology and the scale of potential productivity savingsHousing affordability, incomes, and policy bottlenecks through the PGM lensHow firms are actually adopting AI and how faster data changes research cadenceEurope’s defense build-out and the rise of national champions and small-cap innovatorsInterpreting market concentration and what it signals about competitionInflation oscillation, policy mix, and why the Fed’s tools have limitsTariffs as a regressive tax and how costs pass through to consumers over timeUS exceptionalism narrowing and why ex-US markets may lead in the coming cycleThe Draghi report and tearing down barriers inside the EU single marketComparing late-1990s tech to today’s AI build-out and who the next leaders may beGrowth vs. value: focusing on sustained profit inflections, not cheapness aloneUsing stakeholder analysis to link macro themes to bottom-up stock workBiggest opportunities: Japan, Korea, Europe, select emerging markets, and parts of the Middle EastBiggest risk: a breakdown in the global order amid US-China tensionsClosing lessons: stay curious, stay nimble, question narratives, track the factsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and Olga’s role at William Blair02:49 The Perpetual Growth Machine explained06:24 Policy bottlenecks, incentives, and growth09:32 AI as a general purpose technology and productivity math11:53 Practical AI adoption inside investment firms15:06 Where PGM points to opportunity right now16:26 Europe’s defense spending and emerging winners19:02 Macro setup and consumer health20:42 Inflation today and what’s changed under the hood22:46 The Fed’s dilemma and limits of monetary policy25:00 Tariffs 101: who pays and how it shows up28:55 Early evidence in goods prices29:41 US exceptionalism vs. the rest of the world31:00 The Draghi report and a real EU single market33:11 Can Europe and others catch up in tech?36:15 EU financial services barriers and capital deployment37:07 Portfolio implications: why look ex-US39:10 Late-1990s tech vs. today’s AI cycle41:20 Concentration risk and competition policy42:26 Value vs. growth through the PGM lens44:48 Base rates, sustaining growth, and churn at the top49:33 Marrying macro themes with bottom-up research51:08 Firsthand observation vs. headline narratives52:20 Biggest opportunities across regions53:00 Middle East changes and new listings54:48 Biggest risk: global order and US-China tensions55:36 Parting advice for investors

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• Bull Market on Borrowed Time | Ned Davis Chief Strategist Tim Hayes on the Indicators That Matter

  Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to separate real breadth thrusts from dead-cat bounces, the evolving bond/equity correlation, mega-cap concentration risk, the case for value/EM in a defensively rotating tape, and why gold’s secular and cyclical trends remain compelling. You’ll also hear how NDR allocates across stocks, bonds, cash (and gold), and Tim’s timeless lesson for investors: stay objective, disciplined, and flexible.Topics CoveredNDR’s 360° process: price + sentiment + macro + valuation, combined via equal-weighted composites (“weight of the evidence”)How to use breadth, put/call, and thrust signals without getting faked outSecular bull vs. secular bear: what would actually trigger the secular turnReading the bond market: why the stock/bond correlation flipped in 2022 and what a 10-year above approximately 5.0–5.25% could meanConcentration risk in mega-cap tech; implications for the U.S. vs. the rest of the worldWhere value, small caps, and EM can shine in defensive rotationsGold: drivers of the move, secular/cyclical setup, and role in a balanced allocationPractical allocation: when cash was king (2022), current market-weight posture, and sizing for gold“No Pets Allowed”: why aggregates beat single “pet” indicatorsUsing historical analogs carefully—and what to learn (and not learn) from themTim’s core lesson: you can’t forecast reliably—stay flexible and evidence-drivenTimestamps (YouTube Chapters)00:00 Don’t fight the tape—or the Fed (opening context)01:06 Intro and why NDR’s process beats single charts02:58 NDR’s 360° framework and composite models05:31 Indicators that matter: breadth, sentiment, macro/valuation08:11 Asset-allocation model (stocks/bonds/cash) and real-time record09:27 “Secular bull intact; secular-bear risk rising” explained13:04 What counts as a secular bear (’66–’82, 2000–’09)15:05 Tightening vs. easing cycles and thrust reliability16:22 What a breadth thrust actually looks like19:55 From sentiment extremes to 50/200-day confirmation20:06 Bonds and stocks: the correlation flip since 202222:47 Duration, rate-cut hopes, and why cash led in 202224:02 Mega-cap concentration risk—paths from here27:23 Valuation: tech earnings yield at extremes; U.S. most expensive29:14 Where value/small caps/EM can win; China’s role in EM33:25 Gold’s standout year—drivers and positioning36:16 Gold’s secular and cyclical bull case37:13 How much gold belongs in a balanced portfolio40:32 “No Pets Allowed”: trust aggregates, not single signals47:16 Bear-watch vs. rally-watch signals in 202549:02 Using historical analogs without overfitting51:00 NDR culture: objectivity over narratives53:41 Why independence matters53:59 Two closing questions: contrarian belief and one lesson59:03 Where to find Tim and NDR; disclaimer

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• Brent Donnelly on the Fed, Inflation, and Why 2% No Longer Matters

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, and the lessons he’s learned about risk management, narratives, and humility in markets.Topics Covered:Why the Fed is becoming more political and what that means for marketsThe “re-acceleration that wasn’t” and lessons from quickly abandoning tradesHow to structure trades like gold calls and TLT puts for asymmetric payoffFX as the “exhaust valve” for tariffs and global capital flowsCanada’s housing bubble and CAD vulnerabilitiesInflation targeting, bond vigilantes, and the Fed’s credibilityAvoiding the trap of perma-bearishness and using stop-losses as forced humilityThe importance of imagination in regime changes and Fed forecast errorsHow Brent is using LLMs and AI to trade headlines, structure trades, and analyze patternsTrading bubble names with options and risk-aware structuresLessons on flexibility, humility, and embracing uncertainty in marketsTimestamps:00:00 – Fed independence and political pressure02:00 – The failed “re-acceleration” thesis06:00 – Structuring gold calls and TLT puts14:00 – FX as the exhaust valve for tariffs20:50 – Canada’s housing market and CAD risks26:30 – The Fed as a political institution32:40 – Inflation targeting and 3% as the new 2%35:20 – Avoiding perma-bear bias and using stop-losses42:00 – The Fed dinner story and the humility of wrong forecasts46:30 – Using LLMs and AI in trading53:00 – Shorting bubble names with call spreads56:00 – Cheat sheets and pattern recognition with AI59:30 – Lessons on flexibility and humility in trading1:02:15 – Closing thoughts and where to follow Brent

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• Cullen Roche on Inflation, AI and Why the Debt Crisis is Overblown

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more disinflationary pressures than inflationary risks. We also dive into his “defined duration” investing framework and preview his upcoming work on portfolio strategies.Topics CoveredWhy fears of a looming debt crisis may be misplacedInflation outlook, tariffs, and the Fed’s “soft landing” challengeThe importance of Fed independence and risks of politicizationImmigration, demographics, and long-term disinflationary trendsHow AI is reshaping productivity, inequality, and the job marketDefined Duration Investing and asset-liability matchingLessons from all-weather strategies and the Permanent PortfolioCullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio” and future of global marketsTimestamps00:00 – Cullen on debt crisis fears02:32 – State of the U.S. economy post-COVID05:18 – Inflation, tariffs, and shelter costs10:25 – Soft landing vs. rolling recessions14:07 – The Fed’s role and impossible job19:25 – National debt and Ray Dalio’s crisis warning27:52 – AI boom and disinflationary forces31:01 – Immigration, demographics, and inflation37:23 – Aging population and wealth inequality43:00 – How AI impacts productivity and jobs52:00 – Defined Duration Investing explained1:01:34 – Portfolio strategies: Permanent Portfolio & risk parity1:03:54 – Cullen’s “Forward Cap Portfolio”1:06:31 – Closing thoughts and future projects

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• This Hasn't Happened Since 1930 | Eric Pachman on Why the Labor Market is Lying to You

  In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,healthcare’s role in the economy, immigration, inflation, and how hissystematic process identifies companies with the endurance to thrive. ### Topics Covered * Eric’s unconventional career path: from Morgan Stanley andExxonMobil to founding 46Brooklyn and joining Band Creek * How personal experiences led him to tackle healthcaretransparency and drug pricing reform * The role of **information theory** in investing and thefoundation of Band Creek’s systematic process * Building powerful data visualizations to understand labormarkets, inflation, and structural economic changes * Why healthcare dominates recent U.S. job growth and therisks of overreliance on one sector * The impact of immigration on labor force growth andstructural inflation * Key drivers of inflation and how to interpret CPI and PCEdata * How Band Creek applies systematic endurance and the KellyCriterion to equity selection * Sector exposures and lessons learned from applyingdata-driven models internationally * Eric’s views on cognitive biases, why most investors can’treliably beat the market, and the power of data analysis

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