Excess Returns

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome?
In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio.
Topics covered:
What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexes
Interest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patterns
Prediction markets as a source of information for investors
AI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growth
Why bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity risk
Small-cap profitability and the importance of quality screens
AI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investment
Private-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationale
Using thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive core
Portfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexible
Learn more about Tema ETFs.
Follow Paisley Nardini on X.
Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market
04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook
09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets
13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership
19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns
26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality
33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers?
39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work
45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs
52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio
58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it.
Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk.
The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness.
Topics covered:
The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for value
How higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity set
AI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losers
Valuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flow
Using AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is broken
The US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond tech
Japan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced in
China's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany it
How restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock value
Building a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narratives

T. Rowe Price International Value Fund
https://www.troweprice.com/financial-intermediary/us/en/investments/mutual-funds/us-products/international-value-equity-fund/advisor-class.htmlTimestamps:
00:00 Colin McQueen's evolution as a value investor
07:04 Why deep value struggled in the 2010s
11:20 Higher rates and a more balanced opportunity set
16:20 International value, financials, and AI suppliers
21:20 AI versus the dot-com era and managing valuation risk
25:27 Free cash flow, restructuring, and AI-assisted research
29:56 Comparing US and international valuations
35:39 The risk dashboard and changing European markets
40:00 Corporate reform and opportunities in Japan and Korea
44:57 China, Asia ex Japan, and financial stocks
49:31 Global connections and why a stock market isn't an economy
54:55 Diversification and researching corporate turnarounds
59:57 Looking beyond quarterly earnings and extreme narratives
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market.
In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership.
We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case.
Topics covered:
Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market call
His financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economy
How restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage
The delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprises
Technology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocks
AI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profits
How two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioning
The divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven"
What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growth
Why rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advance
Follow Jim Paulsen:
Paulsen Perspectives
Jim Paulsen on X
Timestamps:
00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call
07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period
14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently
20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects
26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy
30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern?
35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency
42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven
47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure
53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal
58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Barry Ritholtz, Dave Nadig and Matt Zeigler explore why AI's real productivity gains don't automatically translate into an investing edge. From stock picking and market concentration to the financing behind the AI buildout, they separate enthusiasm for the technology from the economics of owning it.
Subscribe to Click Beta on Spotify⁠⁠⁠
⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to Click Beta on Apple Podcasts
In this episode of Click Beta, Barry Ritholtz and Dave Nadig join Matt Zeigler for a conversation about where AI is already changing their work and where investors should ask harder questions. Barry shares how his team uses AI to analyze portfolio drift and identify clients who may need a rebalance. The discussion also covers client relationships, consumer pricing, creative side projects, and why Barry is increasingly enthusiastic about bonds without calling an end to the equity bull market.
Topics covered:
Why widely available AI tools may improve research without creating a lasting stock-picking advantage
Market breadth, mega-cap concentration, and the potential impact of large tech IPOs
Data center financing, credit quality, and the risk of rapid technological change
Barry Ritholtz's use of AI to analyze allocation drift, taxes, and household circumstances
How better meeting records can strengthen the human side of financial advice
Learning to collaborate with AI and asking better questions
The debate over dynamic pricing, consumer data, and whose interests AI agents serve
Baseball tools, astronomy dashboards, music discovery, and the joy of experimenting
Deciding which tasks to automate and which activities are worth doing yourself
Barry Ritholtz's case for bonds, municipal income, and avoiding the reach for yield
Find our guests:
Barry Ritholtz — The Big Picture - https://ritholtz.com
Ritholtz Wealth Management - https://www.ritholtzwealth.com
Barry Ritholtz on X - https://x.com/Ritholtz
Dave Nadig's work at etf.com - https://www.etf.com
Dave Nadig on X - https://x.com/DaveNadig
Timestamps:
00:00 Meet Click Beta: AI and the stock-picking question
05:14 AI concentration and market breadth
10:08 Tech IPO valuations and data center financing
15:22 Barry Ritholtz: AI and portfolio rebalancing analysis
20:58 Can AI improve the human side of financial advice?
25:49 Better client questions and better prompts
30:13 The AI imagination gap: collaboration versus search
36:48 Dynamic pricing and the consumer-retailer arms race
41:26 Consumer data and the incentives behind AI agents
45:54 Astronomy, music, and testing your assumptions
51:18 Automating busywork to make room for curiosity
55:39 Creative experiments and choosing what to automate
01:00:11 Why Barry Ritholtz is excited about bonds
01:04:37 Bonds versus equity income and closing thoughts
Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:
https://excessreturns.co
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom explore the tension between holding great businesses and keeping a winning stock from becoming too much portfolio risk. Why do two investors who believe in letting winners compound also use 10% position limits?
On this episode of 100 Year Thinkers, Chris Davis of Davis Funds and Robert Hagstrom of EquityCompass join Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to discuss position sizing, selling mistakes, index concentration and the cost of growth. From Chris Davis’s experience selling Costco to the debate over who will capture AI’s economic benefits, they examine what it takes to hold a business through uncertainty without ignoring risk. Stay for Matt and Bogumil’s closing discussion of the lessons for investors.
Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Spotify⁠⁠
⁠⁠Subscribe to the 100 Year Thinkers of Apple

Topics covered:
Why selling a genuinely great business can be an investor’s most expensive mistake
How client behavior and fund constraints influence 10% position limits
Chris Davis’s concerns about index concentration, momentum and future IPO incentives
Robert Hagstrom on trimming positions as the margin of safety shrinks
The bull-case pre-mortem: asking what could make selling today a mistake
What Chris Davis missed about Costco’s growth and ability to adapt
Why identical earnings growth can produce different shareholder returns
Whether AI spending builds durable pricing power or delivers more value to users
How customer trust and restraint on margins can strengthen competitive advantages
Balance sheets, circular financing and the humility required to size a position
⁠Chris Davis / Davis Funds⁠
⁠Robert Hagstrom / EquityCompass⁠
Chapters:
00:00 Holding great businesses and the case for position limits
06:47 Robert Hagstrom on concentration and client risk
12:40 Index concentration, momentum and IPO incentives
19:03 Trimming winners, margin of safety and the Costco lesson
30:09 Valuation, return on capital and the cost of growth36:01 Is AI’s capital spending cycle temporary?
40:10 AI pricing power: builders versus users
45:35 Competitive advantage, margins and customer trust51:45 Balance sheets and circular AI financing
55:53 Evaluating the AI investment cycle
01:00:23 Matt and Bogumil’s takeaways: position sizing and AI
01:10:25 Being an AI user versus an AI investor
Learn more about the ⁠Excess Returns podcast network⁠.
No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.